Prior to the 2020 census, there was considerable debate about the politicization of the census through the proposed question on immigration status. The ultimate decision by the Supreme Court to disallow the question was largely because of the concern that the accuracy of the count would be affected, and not because the asking of the question was without precedent.
Recently, we learned that the current administration is considering adding questions on federal forms – including potentially the annual ACS and 2030 Census – related to the reparations debate. As the Wall Street Journal reported (U.S. Considers Asking Black Americans on Census if They Are Slave Descendants – WSJ), the administration is seeking public input on how it might go about differentiating between people who are direct descendants of slaves and those whose ancestors arrived after the abolition of slavery.
Constitutionally, the census is required to be taken each decade (Article 1, Sections 2 and 9) for two stated purposes: the apportionment of representatives and direct taxation. The census has long asked questions that extend beyond its legally required purpose and has often delved into subjects which go well beyond the legal requirements of the census. Madison argued that the census should include questions which would “enable them to adapt their public measures to the particular circumstances of the community”.
In recent decades, the census was split into a ‘short form’ which enumerated all households with a minimum number of questions and a ‘long form’, in which a wide variety of detailed questions were asked. If a question was controversial, and could possibly result in non-response, it was generally found in the long form, in which case sampling error could be statistically handled.
The ACS has in effect replaced the long form, leaving the census to focus largely on its original stated purpose. Many of the issues that might arise by asking controversial – or even politically motivated – questions are more readily handled within a sampling environment than with an enumeration. In other words, if such questions are to be included, they should be in a sample survey like the ACS and even then, only with considerable discussion and testing.
Our fear here is that if the census becomes a vehicle for the politics du jour, there is a significant risk of it being unable to properly fulfill its constitutional role. The fairness of the apportionment of representatives at all levels of government is of paramount importance. Any politicization of the census should be rejected if it could in any manner affect the quality of the enumeration.
If you have thoughts on this addition, or other census issues, you can comment on the process, which is open until April 27th, here: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/01/27/2023-01635/initial-proposals-for-updating-ombs-race-and-ethnicity-statistical-standards
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