This weekend, the New York Times published an article titled “How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World”. Of course, it caught our eye. The article talked about how the world is going to experience a major shift, particularly in age, over the next few decades. As Europe, China and the Americas get older, most of Africa will make up the younger populations in the world. We can see this shift in the Census data. In 1980, the median age in America was 30, today it is over 38. But why should you care?
Regarding age, the article revealed two potentially frightening projections. The first is that most people who will be alive in 2050 have already been born. The second states that by 2050, people aged 65 and older will make up nearly 40 percent of the population in some parts of East Asia and Europe. So, what is happening? People are living longer as modern medicine advances at exponential rates, and people are having less children. This combination is leading to a massive demographic shift that left alone will lead to economic difficulties. A growing number of retirees will depend on a shrinking number of working-age people to support them. In some European countries, this has meant changes to pension programs and even increasing the retirement age as they see these changes coming.
Why should you care? If you work in retail, healthcare, site selection or economic development, the time to begin planning is now. How can you make your town attractive to working age individuals? Should you be investing in long term care facilities? Should hospitals in areas with declining birth rates begin to shift resources away from labor and delivery? What type of housing fits the needs of your community?
While age is certainly an important variable to act upon, it needs to be taken into consideration with other demographic data. While an aging population might start a conversation about making changes and planning for the future, additional variables like household income, business data, crime and others also need to be accounted for. Decisions should never be made in a vacuum, especially when one subject seems to be taking the lion’s share of the conversation.
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