The housing market feels like it hasn’t been “normal” since 2019, and it doesn’t look like it will be again for some time. Many factors are affecting the market, like low mortgage rates in 2021, high rates now in late 2023 and a lack of inventory compared to the number of potential buyers, all of which is driving the prices of homes up and making home ownership unaffordable for many Americans. One thing that has made headlines repeatedly is the speculation that investors are purchasing homes and turning them into Airbnb and VRBO properties. Using our data on seasonally vacant and occasional use homes, we wanted to see if this was a trend that was living up to the hype.
Using our 2023B variable, we mapped the nationwide seasonally vacant homes, and they were not exactly as we expected them to be. As you can see on the maps below, the number of seasonally vacant or for occasional use went down, not up. Seasonally vacant homes remain in beach towns, the mountains, and lakes where they represent a high percentage of the overall homes in those areas.
When we look closer at specific cities, you can see similar patterns. The map of New York shows some in Manhattan – largely around central park. These are often very expensive homes, owned by individuals who have homes in other locations as well and travel between them. San Fransisco shows seasonally vacant homes mostly north of the city where there are state parks.
So, are Airbnb owners to blame for the housing crisis? We don’t see that as a trend, especially when you consider that most people aren’t interested in buying a home in the areas that are popular among seasonal rentals. Additionally, with many major cities setting regulations on short term rentals, this likely won’t become a larger issue in the coming years.
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