Retail Potential
Model Demand Across Retail Categories by Store Type and Geography
The AGS Retail Potential dataset estimates consumer spending for more than 60 retail store categories using NAICS-based classifications.
Whether you’re evaluating store locations, scouting new markets, or guiding commercial development, Retail Potential helps quantify what local consumers are likely to spend and where unmet demand may exist.
Powered by AGS’s Consumer Expenditure data and benchmarked against the U.S. Census of Retail Trade, these estimates reflect both total and per-household demand across standard geographies from block group to national.
What’s Included
- Estimated demand for 60+ NAICS-aligned store categories
- Total and per-household spending projections by retail type
- Aggregated by standard U.S. geographies from block group upward
- Designed for side-by-side use with BusinessCounts to assess retail saturation
Built for Industry
Retail & Franchise
Identify high-potential categories and geographic areas for store placement, expansion, or competitive positioning.
Grocery & Restaurant
Pinpoint communities with strong demand for food, beverage, and specialty categories to inform store layout and services.
Economic Development
Attract targeted retailers and reduce retail leakage by aligning opportunity zones with demonstrated consumer demand.
Real Estate
Support tenant mix decisions and investment proposals with retail-specific demand estimates by store type.
Finance & Lending
Assess market viability for retail-backed loans by comparing potential sales to current store footprints.
Analytics & Consulting
Enhance market models with demand-side retail estimates rooted in household behavior and geography.
Delivery Formats
- Flat files (CSV or proprietary format)
- Snapshot API access
- Bundled with the Premier Package or as a standalone license
Retail Potential Methodology
Retail Potential is derived from AGS Consumer Expenditures and aligned to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
Demand estimates are benchmarked using the U.S. Census of Retail Trade and are calculated for both total and average household spending per store type.
AGS updates the dataset annually, ensuring relevance with current economic conditions and retail trends.
Documentation & Support
Each dataset includes clear category definitions, NAICS mappings, and methodology notes. AGS also provides guidance for pairing Retail Potential with BusinessCounts or other datasets for a full picture of geospatial supply and demand.