It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that the American population is getting older. The average number of children born to women of childbearing age has been falling steadily, and the distribution of population by age most certainly shows this:
The percentage of the population under age 15 has fallen from 21.6% in 1990 to 17.8% at present. Consider this: since 1990 the population of the United States has grown by 88 million people, but the population under the age of 20 has grown by less than 7 million. At the other end of the spectrum, the population age 65+ has nearly doubled from 31.2 to 59.5 million. The implications of these shifts are well known.
Over this same period, we have seen some major changes in the internal migration patterns. The prevailing pattern was the flight from the Rust Belt to the pacific coast, but at present it is from the west coast and the northeast to a resurgent south, led by massive growth in cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, Tampa, and Nashville. So, we ask, how has this changed the spatial patterns of median age? Migration tends to peak in young adults and then again at retirement age, so one would expect that migration at the current scale would change some of the dominant historic differences between areas.
The map below shows the median age on a level 5 H3 grid, compared to the national median age. The youthful areas are typically rural agricultural and energy production areas, as well as traditionally Mormon areas and Native American reservations.
The current year map, using the same scale, shows the diverging age distribution quite clearly:
Much of the change is a continuation of long-term trends – the continued concentration of the population in urban areas. The gap between young and old areas continues to widen, and this is most apparent in the rugged areas of the west and Appalachia. Florida, once considered the retirement home for the northeast, now has substantial areas populated by young families, especially south Florida and the growth corridor between Tampa and Orlando. What is clear, however, is the continued flight of the young from rural America, which is already having major impacts on the mix of services required in these areas and the challenge of providing adequate services in low density areas.
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