It’s hard to believe, but four years ago this month, much of the United States put up the closed sign in an attempt to slow the spreading of the COVID-19 outbreak through the declaration of public health emergencies. Within two weeks of the beginning of the ‘slow the curve’ push, unemployment rates had begun to skyrocket from what were historically low levels.
For two years, we built and updated a weekly block group level model of unemployment rates that, although crude, was well received and utilized. Certain sectors – tourism, restaurants and retail, and manufacturing – were very hard hit, often regardless of the state and local COVID response.
Now four years later, unemployment levels have stabilized, but the effects of the pandemic will be felt for years to come. Here we focus on just a few of the changes in the labor force and their regional and local implications by comparing our 2019 estimates to our 2023 estimates. While some of the differences appear minor, it must be recognized that these are unprecedented at a national scale except in times of war.
Working At Home
The most significant change was in the percentage of the labor force who work at home, which rose steadily from 1.63% in 2000 to 5.23% in 2019. In 2023, nearly 18% of the total labor force usually worked from home. While we expect this number to decline over the coming years, it will not return to pre-pandemic levels.
The results of this have been disastrous for many downtown cores across the country, as commercial vacancy rates have risen substantially and local businesses reliant upon the daytime population have been shuttered.
Interestingly, median commute times declined from 22.3 minutes to 21.6 minutes, likely indicating that workers with long commutes were increasingly working at home.
Sectoral Changes
Not surprisingly, some of the hardest hit sectors have not fully recovered. Employment in food services declined from 7.5% of the labor force in 2019 to 6.4% in 2023. Similar declines were seen in arts/entertainment/recreation and wholesale trade. On the flip side, substantial growth occurred in public administration, finance and insurance, transportation, and professional and technical services. While this is reflective of long term trends, the increase in transportation can largely be attributed to the rise in remote shopping.
Occupational Changes
Not surprisingly, materials moving occupations grew an astonishing 58% over just four years, followed closely by health support (52%) and scientific occupations (42%). At the other end of the scale, personal care occupations declined by nearly 50% and declines were seen in food preparation, office and administrative support, maintenance, and sales.
Public and Private Employment
Employment at all levels of government increased from 13.5% of the labor force to 14.6% in a mere four years. Self-employment grew slightly from 9.6% to 10.0% and employment in non-profit organizations rose from 8.0% to 8.7%.
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