Last April, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, we released weekly unemployment data with the intention that we would release it until unemployment numbers rose as the world got back to “normal”. At the start of 2021, we pivoted to monthly updates instead of weekly, as the volatility in unemployment rates subsided. A year and a half later, we are still producing this useful data every month and giving it away to those that need and use it.
Under normal circumstances, demographic data at the neighborhood level changes very slowly and often predictably. When many public facing businesses closed or were severely limited in their activities, unemployment increased at an unprecedented pace. In the two-week period ending March 28, 2020, ten million newly unemployed people across the country filed unemployment benefit claims. Aside from the obvious expected losses in hospitality and food service, we also saw significant unemployment in manufacturing, transportation, and even medical services.
We have been creating and making available an updated, rolling month unemployment estimate at the block group, ZIP code, and county levels of geography now for 17 months. While we do not pretend to have “on the ground” information to support these estimates, our initial tests on the data to date suggest that our methodology is a reasonable one – we are focusing on the distribution of employment by occupation and using a series of estimates of vulnerability curves to simulate what is being reported at a national and state level. Sources for the data include AGS variables, and the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the CPS (Current Population Survey).
Over the past few weeks, we have seen a substantial rise in COVID-19 rates and the inevitable response of public health agencies – renewed restrictions, mask mandates, and a heightened campaign to get more people vaccinated.
Overall, new and continuing unemployment claims continue to decline slowly but with some significant exceptions over the past two weeks, largely in the automotive sector. Ongoing issues with computer chip supply may be the culprit here and may lead to further layoffs. Tourism dependent states remain hard hit – Hawaii, Nevada, and Alaska continue to have much higher unemployment than states with more balanced economies. At the other end of the spectrum, unemployment rates are virtually at pre-pandemic levels in the areas from the Dakotas to Idaho.
The rise of COVID-19 cases and subsequent return to restrictions in many areas of the country may result in increases in unemployment over the next several weeks, especially if indoor dining at restaurants becomes more restrictive.
The data can be accessed and downloaded here. We simply ask that you provide your email address and the reason why you are downloading the data.
For the foreseeable future, we plan to continue to make this data available free of charge for anyone that needs it. While this situation continues to change and evolve, we are committed to supplying you with this data for as long as there is a demand.
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