In the world of demographics, seemingly small differences in national statistics can have dramatic effects, especially when those differences have different spatial expressions. The average age of the population in the United States is about 38.5 years old. In Canada, the average is 40.9 years old. At first glance, these don’t seem radically different.
Minor differences at the national level, however, can often have significant impacts that should be considered in location analysis. If we begin to pull apart these numbers, we quickly discover that small differences truly do matter. A simple breakdown of the percentage of population by major age group between the countries makes this clear –
Clearly, the percentage of children is significantly higher in the United States as is the average family size. We will leave this for the moment and concentrate on the 50-64 age group.
The changes in life at this age can be significant. With children off to college and (hopefully) not returning home, and with retirement in sight, many in this age group make significant lifestyle changes. The large suburban home that often seemed cramped with teenagers now seems cavernous, and many are tempted to take their equity and run.
The two percent difference in size between the two countries becomes significant in the spatial expression of those lifestyle changes. It may well be the same basic phenomenon at work – the large house within easy commuting distance of urban jobs is jettisoned for a small house “out in the country” and the equity is used to finance an early retirement.
And here is where it gets interesting. The three largest metropolitan areas in Canada – Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver – account for well over one third of the total population. In Toronto, a short ninety-minute drive takes you through an abrupt transition from the rolling farmlands of southwestern Ontario to the Canadian Shield and its thousands of lakes. The northbound highways are typically jammed on Friday nights with middle and upper income “cottagers” escaping the city for the weekend. With the massive rise in housing prices in the city over the past two decades, many of those cottagers, now empty nesters, have not made the return trip on Sunday night. Instead, the house in the city has been sold, and home is now the cottage – at least until health concerns become predominant and urban life returns.
The result is a clear demographic pattern which shows up especially in Ontario and Quebec and is strong enough to warrant its own segment. The first map shows the relative density of the segment, and the second the areas where the segment is dominant.
This is a surprisingly upscale rural segment – much of it fueled with retirement savings has a median age of over 51 years, and nearly 30% of the residents are aged 50-64. While found in many areas of both countries, it is the dominant segment in much of central Ontario and in the Laurentian Mountains north of Montreal. Labor force participation is low, and 20% of the workforce is self-employed, many working from home.
So, the next time you see a table that shows minor differences, take a closer look at the details. Small differences in demographics, or changes over time, can have a profound impact on spatial patterns. As we like to say, geography still matters.
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