For nearly twenty years, AGS has been creating its CrimeRisk indexes which have proved invaluable to retail location planners, security analysts, and commercial insurance underwriters. The current situation is certainly important, but in many cases analysts can benefit from looking at projected trends. An area could have relatively high crime levels, but that risk may be mitigated if lower levels are projected in the future. Likewise, a low crime area may appear desirable at present, but with growth and demographic change may come significant increases in crime rates.
The projections are based on the same trusted methods used for current year estimates – based on the local demographic models which accurately track jurisdiction and local area crime incidents over time. Demographics change slowly over time, but even over a five year projection horizon, trends emerge that can significantly impact business decisions.
Ten variables might not seem much of a database expansion, but these five year projections fill an important gap in the ever expanding AGS data and analytics toolbox.