We started wondering this week about some of the potential impacts if the now substantial unemployment persists after the stay at home orders are lifted. One possible effect is on mortgage defaults, and we created a crude index of risk based on a simple multiplication of three factors – the percent of dwelling units with a mortgage, the percentage of income tied to wages and salaries, and the percentage of the labor force in the most critically hit sectors of the economy. The map of Minneapolis-St. Paul is typical of most major cities, with significant areas of risk in the newer suburbs where households tend to be younger and heavily dependent on wage and salary income. The effects on local real estate markets could be quite significant over the coming months if the v-shaped recovery fails to materialize.
The map of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex looks similar, with the suburbs being most at risk for default.
As promised last week, we want to share updated resources with all of you from our partners in the industry. The Sites USA mapping tool using our unemployment data has been updated and integrated with Spatial.ai to bring you an interactive way to see market reactions across the nation. You can find their updated tool here.
MRI-Simmons has conducted a consumer insights study which explores consumer attitudes and behavior related to the COVID-19 pandemic and reveals two consumer segments that have emerged as a result of the crisis. The full survey is available through MRI-Simmons, but they have released a sample of the data, which you can download and view here.